In reality, they are the same. We are ramping up to something that many people still cannot fathom just as they couldn’t imagine it 83 and 108 years ago.
It has been eight decades years since there has been a major land war in the world. Korea does not count, nor does Vietnam. The first Gulf War and the two that followed following 9/11 do not count either. The reason is that those conflicts never really had a chance to grow outside of their borders and the enemy did not have the means to escalate to significant battles. Yes, those wars drained us of blood, treasure, and even resolve, but a global conflict was never a possibility. No other country engaged in a conflict that could have resulted in superpowers getting directly involved against one another.
And here we are. Russia continues to strangle Ukraine. China currently sides with Russia as they clearly look for a roadmap out of all of this to pull Taiwan into their fold once and for all. NATO still hems and haws about their involvement but clearly showing no desire for direct or indirect involvement for now. The current unpopular president of the U.S. is dealing with all of this as well as the second and third order effects of war in Europe; inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, and calls for No Fly Zones and more military support to Ukraine. Whether we know it or not, World War III has started. We just don’t recognize what war in the 21st century looks like.
In the 21st century war involves weaponized social media, cyber-attacks, remote controlled vehicles, lawfare, and hurting private citizens by holding onto their billion dollar bank accounts and yachts. The news still provides the visceral images of war; shelling of innocent civilians, refugees fleeing with whatever they can carry, burning tanks and buildings, not to mention the dead on both sides. With no end in sight and no clear off ramp for Putin, we should expect a long and protracted conflict.
I have been to Ukraine. I visited a joint training center there. At the time, Russia had already annexed Crimea and there was an active conflict to the far east of the country. I loved Lviv. You could not tell there was a war from where we were staying. On a warm fall evening the streets were alive with music and people enjoying their lives. I admire the Ukrainian people for their resiliency. The will make the Russians pay for every inch of ground and that will further exacerbate the conflict.
At some point this will directly involve U.S. troops and NATO. There will be an incident, with denied responsibility, on one side or the other. It will demand a response beyond diplomacy or sanctions and just like that we will be in a real shooting war. It will make the casualties from Iraq and Afghanistan pale in comparison because this enemy has artillery and ICBMs. Russia’s allies are few. Those allies willing to get directly involved are even fewer. Backed into a corner, with his strategy failing, Putin could leave his legacy as a scorched earth policy, leaving Ukraine and parts of Eastern Europe glowing.
The next few months will be bloody and show the very worst of humanity and very best of people. It will show the hypocrisy and lack of will in some political leaders and the blood thirsty resolve in others. It may unite some and divide others where those relationships never existed before. Whatever happens, the long term outcome is uncertain.
I believe that if we ignore this conflict and allow Russia to occupy and annex Ukraine that it will only be a matter of time before Russia sets it eyes on another Eastern European nation. Swift decisive action is called for now because it will be much harder to remove them later. I have a child in the service of the country. I know the danger and do not wish it upon her. I worry about my oldest son who is only three years away from draft age. I know what I am writing might directly involve them and I worry.
And yet I hear the drumbeats for war and I find myself called to them.
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