It is March 2022. As you read this I can
honestly put down in this journal that future of world affairs is cloudy. We
seem to be on the brink of war. Not a war like we fought in Iraq and
Afghanistan; a war against insurgents; tanks versus IEDs. This war could
enflame the whole world. It is happening in real time. Our history teaches us
the quick decline into previous wars because incidents occur in the narrative
on one page. This descent into war seems slow and spiraling simply because we
go on with our day to day lives in the forefront. In reality, they are the
same. We are ramping up to something that many people still cannot fathom just
as they couldn’t imagine it 83 and 108 years ago.
It has been eight decades years since
there has been a major land war in the world. Korea does not count, nor does
Vietnam. The first Gulf War and the two
that followed following 9/11 do not count either. The reason is that those
conflicts never really had a chance to grow outside of their borders and the
enemy did not have the means to escalate to significant battles. Yes, those
wars drained us of blood, treasure, and even resolve, but a global conflict was
never a possibility. No other country
engaged in a conflict that could have resulted in superpowers getting directly
involved against one another.
And here we are. Russia continues to
strangle Ukraine. China currently sides with Russia as they clearly look for a
roadmap out of all of this to pull Taiwan into their fold once and for all.
NATO still hems and haws about their involvement but clearly showing no desire
for direct or indirect involvement for now. The current unpopular president of
the U.S. is dealing with all of this as well as the second and third order
effects of war in Europe; inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, and calls for No
Fly Zones and more military support to Ukraine. Whether we know it or not, World
War III has started. We just don’t recognize what war in the 21st
century looks like.
In the 21st century war
involves weaponized social media, cyber-attacks, remote controlled vehicles,
lawfare, and hurting private citizens by holding onto their billion dollar bank
accounts and yachts. The news still
provides the visceral images of war; shelling of innocent civilians, refugees
fleeing with whatever they can carry, burning tanks and buildings, not to
mention the dead on both sides. With no end in sight and no clear off ramp for
Putin, we should expect a long and protracted conflict.
I have been to Ukraine. I visited a
joint training center there. At the time, Russia had already annexed Crimea and
there was an active conflict to the far east of the country. I loved Lviv. You
could not tell there was a war from where we were staying. On a warm fall evening the streets were alive
with music and people enjoying their lives.
I admire the Ukrainian people for their resiliency. The will make the
Russians pay for every inch of ground and that will further exacerbate the
conflict.
At some point this will directly involve
U.S. troops and NATO. There will be an
incident, with denied responsibility, on one side or the other. It will demand
a response beyond diplomacy or sanctions and just like that we will be in a
real shooting war. It will make the
casualties from Iraq and Afghanistan pale in comparison because this enemy has
artillery and ICBMs. Russia’s allies are few. Those allies willing to get
directly involved are even fewer. Backed into a corner, with his strategy
failing, Putin could leave his legacy as a scorched earth policy, leaving
Ukraine and parts of Eastern Europe glowing.
The next few months will be bloody and
show the very worst of humanity and very best of people. It will show the
hypocrisy and lack of will in some political leaders and the blood thirsty
resolve in others. It may unite some and divide others where those
relationships never existed before.
Whatever happens, the long term outcome is uncertain.
I believe that if we ignore this
conflict and allow Russia to occupy and annex Ukraine that it will only be a
matter of time before Russia sets it eyes on another Eastern European nation.
Swift decisive action is called for now because it will be much harder to remove
them later. I have a child in the
service of the country. I know the
danger and do not wish it upon her. I worry about my oldest son who is only
three years away from draft age. I know what I am writing might directly
involve them and I worry.
And yet I hear the drumbeats for war and
I find myself called to them.